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Over the past few months we've heard several warnings from top government officials about the possibility of a "pandemic," or worldwide outbreak of flu, similar to the major influenza outbreaks that occurred in 1918 and in 1957.

National Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff describes a pandemic as "among the most catastrophic" threats that our nation faces today. Experts are worried that the avian flu virus in Asia could eventually mutate and spread to humans. Considered an extremely dangerous type of influenza, it has killed millions of birds and about half of the 133 people infected with it so far.

We don't know what a pandemic influenza virus would look like, but we know that we need to be prepared for one. Because it takes so long to develop, test and manufacture vaccines for humans, there would not be enough vaccine for everyone who needed it. Experts say that millions of Americans would become sick and several thousand would die if a pandemic struck the U.S.

A group of about 100 health care workers, law enforcement, EMS, school officials, legislators, members of the Local Human Needs Committee, and human services professionals from across Oswego County got together in late November to learn about pandemic flu and discuss what would occur during a pandemic. The "tabletop" exercise involved a series of increasingly serious scenarios. Participants broke into six groups and brainstormed about how their agencies would respond if a pandemic reached Oswego County.

Kathleen Smith, Commissioner of Health Services, and Patricia Egan, Emergency Management Director, organized the exercise. They emphasized that the exercise was not a "test," but rather an opportunity for people to discuss how the community would need to prepare for and respond to an event.

Because so many people would be seriously ill, many of the critical services that we take for granted -- grocery stores, pharmacies, childcare, schools, and law enforcement -- would be compromised. Hospitals and health care facilities would be overwhelmed by seriously ill patients and would need to prioritize who would receive care.

The small groups got back together several times throughout the morning to share their ideas. The walls of the meeting room in the Joint News Center were covered with pages of comments and suggestions. Some of the main themes to come out of the discussion were:

• Oswego County already has strong emergency planning procedures in place. We have excellent internal resources. Participants represented a wonderful cross-section of our community.
• Agencies know each other and are used to working together. They practice emergency drills for the nuclear power plants, and they use emergency response plans in weather-related events and other emergencies.
• We need to encourage people to be self-reliant and prepared for any type of emergency. At a minimum, every family should have food, water and medical supplies to last for at least three days.
• We should identify vulnerable groups in our community, such as non-English speaking residents and homebound people, and develop ways to meet their needs.
• Oswego County is a rural area. Neighbors will need to look out for each other. Farmers may need help caring for their livestock.
• It will be critical that the public receives accurate information. County agencies have developed procedures, such as the Emergency Alert System, for providing information during crisis situations.

The scenario raised many questions about who would receive limited resources, enforcement of home quarantines, and other issues. Not all of the questions have easy answers. The staff of the county Emergency Management Office is compiling the results of the exercise and will prepare a report that can be used as a basis for further planning.

I would like to thank the county government staff, school nurses and administrators, EMS responders, law enforcement, private industry, hospitals and health services, and all who gave their valuable expertise to the tabletop exercise. They laid the groundwork for identifying planning issues and shared a wealth of valuable information about the response capabilities that exist in Oswego County.